One apartment investor commented that although last week's video was helpful, we fell short of forecasting 2013 sales volume. That's true. In fact, we have never figured out a way to forecast sales volume. It is too dependent on investor attitudes about the economy, the health of the rental market, availability and cost of debt and equity, to name just a few factors. But that comment did inspire us to do better. So, even though firewalking is easier than forecasting sales activity, let's take a look at some estimates.

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Being on Mt. Si always makes me think about the television show, Twin Peaks. Fortunately, we don't need the help of Special Agent Dale Cooper to find twin peaks in today's apartment market. Let's face it, apartments aren't as complicated as investigating the murder of homecoming queen Laura Palmer.

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Some apartment buyers plan to renovate and sell within a year or two of their purchase. They expect to cash in the capital gains their effort created. Others plan to renovate and hold the property for the long-term. They see this as a way to increase cash flow. Either way, these buyers expect to force gains. They actively take steps to increase rents and values. They won’t sit back and either wait for, or gamble on a rising market. This video/article looks at apartment renovation trends over the past 25 years and includes a Renovation cost & benefit forecaster. There is also information about two renovations, and a discussion of some of the newer flooring options investors are looking at for renovations.

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Last year was a good year for apartment sales in the Puget Sound region. In fact, with $2.6 billion of property changing hands, it was the third best year ever. So let's see how active investors are this year by comparing the first four months of 2012 sales activity with the same period this year. That will tell us whether investors are still serious about this market, or just horsing around.

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Prices for apartments built in King County since the beginning of 2000 rose rapidly through 2007. Then they fell during the recession. But the latest online update of our Apartment Investment Report shows that it took until this year for prices to regain lost ground and set new highs. How did that happen? What can we expect next?

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We usually talk about trends for 20-unit and larger apartments. But there are a lot more investors involved in smaller rental properties like single-family rentals, multiplexes, and 5 to 19 unit apartment buildings. The proof: Each spring we survey just over 2,100 20-unit and larger properties for our Apartment Vacancy Report and more than 5,000 smaller properties for our 1-19 Unit rent & Vacancy Report. So this week we will talk about some of the trends we found in King County from our smaller property survey, published last week.

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Patty and I enjoy the outdoors, especially remote locations in the mountains. No buildings, no people, just empty. Patagonia provides lots of opportunities to enjoy vacant space. That's a very good thing, in Patagonia. But in our day-to-day lives in the Puget Sound apartment market, vacant space isn't a good thing. Last week we looked at how unit size has a significant impact on the rate of rent growth. This week's video looks at how unit size influences vacancy rates.

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Remember the Pepsi Challenge commercials from the 1970s? Pepsi won because it was sweeter, or so the story goes. Apartment investors often ask us which is sweeter, apartments with fewer bedrooms or those with more. They want to know which unit types will perform best in a recession, and which will perform best overall. Well, let's take a look.

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June 17, 2013

Chris Ross: "I recently examined each of the reports we get from Dupre + Scott to determine if the information was worth the cost, and if the information was pertinent to the work that we do on a daily basis. Needless to say, we purchased all of our usual reports and even added the Investment Report to be our main source of sales comparables information going forward."

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